Watch Out For The Color Of Money

Painted all over the place and on the road leading to Las Vegas, Nevada, for the December 6, 2008 “Dream Match” between boxing greats Oscar dela Hoya and Manny Pacquiao will be the color of money. Watch out for it.

The first sign we saw how this fight promises to be a hit for business-minded folks came when 13,000 or so live tickets for the MGM Grand disappeared in two hours after it went on sale. In fact one can say that no tickets actually went out on sale: both co-promoters of the fight Top Rand and Golden Boy had already appropriated for each of them 5,000 tickets. The remaining 3,000 went to MGM’s box office.

Ticket hoarding like this does not happen everyday. It only happens when businessmen think they are in possession of an item whose price will zoom up in the foreseeable future. Real estate firms buy landholdings today (called land banking) in anticipation of an increase in their values in the future. Stock brokers also do lots of speculative investing.

Shaping up to be another frenetic front for money lovers is betting. We speculate that millions of dollars will go this route as fight night draws closer. And for one to make money in the betting game, he or she should not only place the right bet; the odds are equally important. For instance if the odds are even, a hundred dollars wager for Manny Pacquiao will win that same amount (less a few dollars for service fees) if Manny goes on to win the fight. But if the odds are against Manny—say a 100 wins 200—any bet amount will double if Manny wins the fight. There are variations to the betting game, such as betting on what round or in what manner (like KO or decision) a fighter one is betting on will win.

The whole point is the odds can either increase or reduce your winnings. This can be of little consequence for small bets, but they can be substantial when the amount of bets gets bigger. The current online betting odds at SBG Global put Manny at +180 and Oscar at -230. Thus if you bet 1,000 dollars on Manny and he wins, you will get 800 dollars more. If you bet 100,000 dollars, you get 80,000 dollars more.

Can the odds be manipulated? Certainly. Betting odds, like prices of commercial commodities, react to market forces (supply and demand). A greater amount of dollars chasing after a dela Hoya wager than on Pacquiao will push the odds up in Oscar’s favor, as it is the case now. So what do I do if I believe Oscar will win and I have a million bucks to bet on him? You guessed it right: I will tell the world that “no, contrary to what the boxing experts are thinking aloud, the dream match is not a mismatch after all.” I could even trick Freddie Roach to tell media that Manny will knock Oscar out in 9 rounds. The more credible your propaganda is, the better.

This is done with the end of view of enticing people to bet for Manny. Because when tons upon tons of money begin to pour for Manny at the betting portals in amounts that equal those that are intended for Oscar, the odds will eventually level off. That way, my 230 dollars will win 230 dollars, not a hundred. A million-dollar bet will win a million dollar, not 400,000 dollars or even less. One can be rich because he did his selling right.

So what’s this we hear that the Mexicans are rooting for Manny? That there is now an outpouring of support—and one that is fast shaping up to be a bandwagon—for Manny? If you ask me, could be one shade of a color of money.

Read Manny First Before You Bet

The World Boxing Council exposes its own hidden agenda for making public its threat to strip Manny Pacquiao of his lightweight championship belt. Sometime last week, the WBC through President-for-life Jose Sulaiman, publicly humiliated Manny for charging that he runs away from his obligations, in particular the sanction fees he supposedly owes the WBC. The WBC also attempted to attract international sympathy for itself by insinuating that Manny—with what WBC has described as an arrogant gesture on his part—has made the boxing governing body look like a beggar and a belt mill.

With its public outburst, I think the WBC tried to accomplish two things. One, to project a regalian image before the boxing world, even at the expense of one of its own—the pound-for-pound king no less—champions. And two, to trap Manny into a squeezed set of options where he could end up fighting somebody outside of his choices.

The first objective is really understandable for anyone desiring to preserve itself. In a world where competition has become very intense, and in a sport that has become too money-oriented that is professional boxing, projecting an image where one stands out from the crowd is not only necessary. It is also a duty. And the WBC cannot be faulted for telling everyone that it still is the most prestigious among so many boxing organizations today.

(Incidentally, the so-called alphabet world boxing bodies that exist today emerged from opportunities presented by the bungling and injustices assumably committed by the pioneering organizations, namely the WBC and the World Boxing Association).

But WBC needed something big to project its image for impact. And what better way to present its case than drag Manny Pacquiao to the picture? That Manny has been presented in a not-so-pleasing light may have been totally fortuitous; the point was WBC needed something to re-advertise itself before the boxing world.

The second objective, in my opinion, is a high-risk proposition, and could very well indicate how desperate the WBC might have been in trying to map its future. If there was nothing suspicious about its schemes, one will notice that giving Manny a deadline within which to settle his supposedly outstanding obligations was not necessary. But the WBC did impose a deadline. Why?
If the WBC waited for Manny to make up his mind on whether to defend his lightweight title or not after his December 6 showdown with Oscar dela Hoya, Manny can have options in which the WBC might find itself irrelevant. Therefore it was important for the WBC to force Manny into making a decision before December 6.

I suspect the WBC considered these scenarios:

1) If Manny goes on to defy the odds and dish out a credible performance on December, Manny will have the luxury of choosing his career-ending opponent. This scenario can make the WBC dispensable and irrelevant.

2) If Manny is badly beaten by dela Hoya, he can descend to the lighter divisions where his options are limited and in which the WBC can impose its presence. For example, if Manny is "forced" to defend his lightweight title, he will have to abide by WBC rules. And abiding by them would include meeting the deadline it set a week ago.

It is clear which of the two scenarios would be to WBC's liking. The problem with the strategy that would force Manny to commit to a decision is that it has a high probability rate of going wrong. In an earlier post I mentioned that publicly shaming people in the Philippines (as it is in most of Asia) just doesn't work, and in more ways than one that's what the WBC did to Manny Pacquiao. A belligerent Pacquiao can always do a Lennox Lewis and dump his lightweight belt to the trash can. If he does this the WBC might as well kiss its designs goodbye.

But if Manny complies with the WBC deadline it can mean that his gut feel tells him something about the uphill battle he faces in Oscar dela Hoya. It can expose him as having his own doubts over his chances of coming out victorious in the biggest fight of his career. To his millions of fans edging to place their bets, this is suggestion enough for them to go slow with their money. No amount of braggadocio from coach Freddie Roach can change the will of a fighter who nurses the lightest of doubts at the back of his mind.

This is not to say that self-confidence alone is enough to win battles. But every success in a contest—as in life—begins with belief in oneself and the will to win. Basketball coach Pat Riley once said "that belief, focus and hard work do not guarantee you championships. But without them, you don't stand a chance."
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Sabongero El Mejicano

A devilish design pops under the recent verbal ejaculations of Jose Sulaiman's World Boxing Council. We see this from the publicized statement issued by the WBC as it concluded its annual convention in China last week, complaining that Filipino boxing icon Manny Pacquiao has not complied with WBC rules regarding payment of sanction fees. It further warned Manny that the WBC will strip him of his lightweight title if the problem is not resolved within 15 days. The public diatribe had an effect of accusing Manny for being dishonest in his dealings.

I find little comfort in saying this, but with that I suspect there was a Mexican effort to pad another layer of accusation over the one which Juan Manuel Marquez had initiated when he openly expressed doubts Manny ever beat him.

Although Sulaiman may have sounded apologetic in the succeeding statements he issued (part of the plot?), the point was that the damage to Manny has been done. Again I suspect the Mexicans might have studied the Filipino psyche very well, because what Sulaiman did was to hit Manny with feelings of shame, and shame is one of the most compelling values of Filipinos.

Sure—that the Pacman won over Marquez on points in their rematch was something which the judges ruled. It was beyond anyone else’s reach to control. Similarly, that Manny had obligations to pay would also be for his staff to track; the paperwork is not his to attend to. Both Marquez and Sulaiman know these; that they would make a public issue—and a heck of a fuss—about them is amazing. The Mexicans cannot beat the Pacman inside the ring. They probably think maybe they can smother him somewhere else.

And if beating Manny outside the ring is one strategy worth pushing, what better way to push it than having Sulaiman’s weight behind it?

And while we are in the business of shaming people, how about this baloney telling us that the Mexicans root for the Pacman more than they do for Oscar? Super Trainer Freddie Roach, Top Rank boss Bob Arum, Mexican hero Julio Cesar Chavez, among others, may genuinely feel that way, but I see a hand pulling some tricks to create a propaganda out of this. The latest item we heard was that some current Mexican champions have agreed to walk the Pacman to the ring when he meets Oscar on December 6.

It could be a subtle message to shame Oscar before the universe, put him into a ferocious rage and attack Manny like a wounded tiger (I guess nothing can hurt Oscar’s ego more than such a sight). In the Philippines, the sabongero (cockfight aficionado) does the same thing. Before releasing his gamecock inside the ring for a cockfight, he excites his gamecock to point where he gets so mad that he is ready to devour his opponent.

Perhaps this is how the Mexicans think Oscar dela Hoya would become when he meets Manny Pacquiao inside the ring. They want Oscar to devour Manny alive and take revenge for the collective humiliation they have been getting from the Filipino. Indeed this fight can be more than about money; it can be truly personal for both fighters.

But Manny will not run away from any challenge. The plan could backfire. It can make Oscar reckless. One mistake and the Golden Boy will be out. The “Dream Match” has the makings of a night that can put either fighter to dreamland.

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