Conspiracy Theory

An article published by one of the Philippine’s major dailies suggested that there is reason for Manny Pacquiao to be happy because the betting odds are inching closer in his favor (subject of my essay in my last post at the Philboxing.com). Let me quote some portions of the report: “He (Pacquiao) must be glad that slowly, but steadily, he’s been catching up on Oscar dela Hoya as far as the odds to Saturday’s ‘Dream Match’ is concerned.” The author reported from MGM Grand, Las Vegas, USA during the press conference for the December 6 mega fight held last Wednesday, Mountain Time.

This is an amazing conjecture. A prizefighter cares nothing about the betting odds unless he is putting his own money on the betting block. He or she may be glad or sad about anything, but I submit that this must not be because of whichever way the odds are moving. The odds mean only to those who play the gambling side of boxing, or of any sport, for that matter.

Nevertheless, that same report has raised my kind of a “conspiracy theory.” I don’t think Manny is concerned about the betting odds. However, I cannot say the same thing for Oscar and, to some extent, Bob Arum and Freddie Roach.

In the days that followed right after the contracts for The Dream Match were sealed and both the Golden Boy and Top Rank camps were loaded with verbal barbs against each other, not a few has said quite loudly that what loomed before us was a mismatch. A fight that should not happen in the first place, some would say. The global mood was reflected in the betting odds. In the first week of November 2008, the betting odds at SBGlobal, one of many online (which means anybody anywhere in the world with money and computer or mobile phone with internet connection can play and place bets) betting portals around, the odds stood at +180 for Manny and -230 for Oscar. This meant that a 100 wager on Manny will win 180 if Manny won the fight; on the other hand, those betting on Oscar will need a 230 wager to win 100 if Oscar came out the winner.

By end of November, the I-will-knock-you-out-Manny-in-five kind of stare down taunting ceased to descend from the bigger dela Hoya. On the other hand, Roach remained relentless in playing down the chances of the Golden Boy. This must have given the money game players their cue (or clue), as the betting mood showed it. The odds moved in Manny’s favor. From +180 it went down to +170. On the other hand, Oscar’s -230 went up to -200.

As fight night approaches, the Pacquiao camp—mainly through Roach and Arum—has not changed its ready-to-charge-and-gore-the-other-guy fighting pose. This is in stark contrast to the projection publicly displayed by the dela Hoya camp. Upon reaching Las Vegas early this week, reporters quoted Oscar as saying that he is worried about Manny’s power, about Manny’s speed, about Manny’s youth, etc. Nacho Berestain, the renowned trainer of many Mexican boxing champions that included Juan Manual Marquez and now working as Oscar’s chief coach, was seen on TV initiating a friendly hug with Roach. At the press conference last Wednesday, Oscar repeated his line: Manny’s youth and boxing skills must be acknowledged, and they are pushing him to climb the ring.

Without necessarily short-selling himself, what Oscar is trying to tell the boxing world is that The Dream Match will not be a mismatch. That the paying fans will get their money’s worth. The message also sends signals to the betting fans: If this is going to be an even match, why bet on Oscar when I stand to gain more by betting on Manny?

Sure enough, millions of dollars must have moved in behind Manny this past 48 hours. As this is written, the SBGlobal boards reflect yet another pull from pro-Manny wagers. Manny is now only +160 while Oscar remains at -200.

The trend established by the odds seems to indicate that the amount of bets placed on Manny has increased at a rate that is faster than that of Oscar’s. It suggest that the odds will eventually level off by the time Philippine politicians get themselves to unload tons of monies—some of which may not be their own. This is what the wagers for Oscar want. This is the time for them to flex hind muscles and get ready to jump for the kill.

The odds work like a currency exchange rate. If they go in you favor, you cash in with a few millions more by just betting at the right time and on the right currency.

As a Pacman fan, Oscar’s body language worries me. His focus goes beyond the fight itself. He is teasing the exchange rate. He cannot do this unless he is sure that he is the right currency.

The Odds Move Closer For Manny

Excitement intensifies as “The Dream Match” between Manny Pacquiao, currently the world’s greatest boxer pound for pound, and Oscar dela Hoya, the biggest draw of the sport, draws near. On the night of December 6, 2008, the boxing world will stop to watch what is expected to be a non-stop action from start to finish atop the ring at MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.
Part of the excitement comes from the generated up-level accounts of bravado as preparations by both camps for the big fight are winding up. Team Pacquiao is confident of winning the fight. Freddie Roach, the coach, has predicted that the fight will end before the final bell. And it will end with Oscar unable to maintain an upright position long enough to survive a career-ending ambush. The rest of the Wild Card staff is not far behind in advancing more or less the same drum-pounding hype.

The Dela Hoya camp is equally upbeat, whose message to everyone since Day One has hardly varied: there is no way Oscar can lose this fight. The Golden Boy himself even went to the extent of saying that Manny will not go beyond five rounds. “I will punish him for dishonoring me,” Oscar was reported to have said. For the many who knew little of how Manny dishonored Oscar, perhaps it would suffice to say that one felt offended by the other when Manny ended up being associated with Bob Arum’s Top Rank instead of Oscar’s Golden Boy Promotions. Manny obliges Oscar by assuring the Golden Boy that The Dream Match will settle the personal issue between the two of them.

So who do you think will come out winning The Dream Match? As the boxing world waits for the suspenseful fight night to come, I can think of three perspectives from which one can hazard a guess. The first comes from what the experts say. The second comes from betting odds. And the third will depend on one’s gut feel.

Boxing experts are not one in their analysis of who is likely to win this huge fight. Majority of boxers who used to be of consequence in their time, including former pound for pound champions Sugar Ray Leonard and Floyd Mayweather Jr, think that Oscar will win. Sports analysts and boxing writers are divided—and sometimes the stories would depend on who is a fan of who. Not a few are decidedly for Oscar. Filipino writers don’t bother with the spin, they just tell us that Manny is the Pacman and the Pacman will win. It is interesting to note that most of American boxing journalists who earlier dismissed the fight as a sham are now writing about it with interest; some are even hinting at the possibility of a Pacquiao win.

Another way of analyzing the fight outcome is to look at the betting trend. We can dismiss what the experts are saying. But we may not dismiss quite easily what the wagers are saying through their bets. The reason is simple: one has nothing but a mouth; the other is putting their money where their mouth is. (Whether that money is clean or dirty would be another story.)

Over the last three weeks, the betting trend has slowly shifted in Manny’s favor, although Oscar remains the heavy favorite. At SBGlobal , the betting odds stood at +170 for Manny and -200 for Oscar. This means a 100 wager on Manny will win 170 if Manny wins the fight; on the other hand, those betting on Oscar will need a 200 wager to win 100 if Oscar comes out the winner. The betting odds previously stood at +180 for Manny and -230 for Oscar.

(In an earlier post I advanced the proposition that it would be in the interest of those who are loaded with dollars and planning to bet on Oscar to rev-up the pro-Manny hype. I believe that an effective Manny projection can create a mousetrap for those who otherwise are not committed to betting on Manny, and a surge in betting funds for him will skew the odds closer to the middle of the probability spectrum. A heavy money game player, say one with a few million bucks, can win big if the betting odds are in his favor.)

The third point for analysis is what we feel about this fight. We concede that Oscar is superior in terms of height, bulk and heft. He will not need to load on his punches to make one a haymaker because of that advantage. Compared to Manny who will need to load on his own to bring his message across, as it were, Oscar will find it easier to keep his balance and attacking position every second of 12 3-minute rounds.

On the other hand, Manny is quick and explosive. Drawing power from a string of Lloyd-certified leg, hip and shoulder muscles, this former mini-flyweight can stun a middleweight. He also has stamina. Manny therefore has what it takes to create conditions for Oscar to make a slight slip or rest a fleeting second to gasp for air. A small opening is all Manny needs to knock the Golden Boy out and send him to his blissful retirement.

Above all, Manny wins because he puts hard work into his craft in ways that are probably unmatched by any professional athlete. He stands out because he has courage; he has self-confidence and he believes in his God. When he fought Marco Antonio Barrera the first time, the betting odds suggested that there was no way Manny could win that fight. Can the Pacman beat the odds one more time on December 6?
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I am a Pacman fan and this post was made to show it. Digital copies of my 148-page book “Who Can Stop The Pacman?” are available for USD 5.75. Order by Paypal through my account at pinoyprofits@gmail.com and I will send your copy to your inbox. Registration at Paypal is free, just click here if you have not account yet. You can also place your bets for the Dream Match online through SBGlobal. Just register (click here) and click to Sportsbook then click again to Boxing.