This is an amazing conjecture. A prizefighter cares nothing about the betting odds unless he is putting his own money on the betting block. He or she may be glad or sad about anything, but I submit that this must not be because of whichever way the odds are moving. The odds mean only to those who play the gambling side of boxing, or of any sport, for that matter.
Nevertheless, that same report has raised my kind of a “conspiracy theory.” I don’t think Manny is concerned about the betting odds. However, I cannot say the same thing for Oscar and, to some extent, Bob Arum and Freddie Roach.
In the days that followed right after the contracts for The Dream Match were sealed and both the Golden Boy and Top Rank camps were loaded with verbal barbs against each other, not a few has said quite loudly that what loomed before us was a mismatch. A fight that should not happen in the first place, some would say. The global mood was reflected in the betting odds. In the first week of November 2008, the betting odds at SBGlobal, one of many online (which means anybody anywhere in the world with money and computer or mobile phone with internet connection can play and place bets) betting portals around, the odds stood at +180 for Manny and -230 for Oscar. This meant that a 100 wager on Manny will win 180 if Manny won the fight; on the other hand, those betting on Oscar will need a 230 wager to win 100 if Oscar came out the winner.
By end of November, the I-will-knock-you-out-Manny-in-five kind of stare down taunting ceased to descend from the bigger dela Hoya. On the other hand, Roach remained relentless in playing down the chances of the Golden Boy. This must have given the money game players their cue (or clue), as the betting mood showed it. The odds moved in Manny’s favor. From +180 it went down to +170. On the other hand, Oscar’s -230 went up to -200.
As fight night approaches, the Pacquiao camp—mainly through Roach and Arum—has not changed its ready-to-charge-and-gore-the-other-guy fighting pose. This is in stark contrast to the projection publicly displayed by the dela Hoya camp. Upon reaching Las Vegas early this week, reporters quoted Oscar as saying that he is worried about Manny’s power, about Manny’s speed, about Manny’s youth, etc. Nacho Berestain, the renowned trainer of many Mexican boxing champions that included Juan Manual Marquez and now working as Oscar’s chief coach, was seen on TV initiating a friendly hug with Roach. At the press conference last Wednesday, Oscar repeated his line: Manny’s youth and boxing skills must be acknowledged, and they are pushing him to climb the ring.
Without necessarily short-selling himself, what Oscar is trying to tell the boxing world is that The Dream Match will not be a mismatch. That the paying fans will get their money’s worth. The message also sends signals to the betting fans: If this is going to be an even match, why bet on Oscar when I stand to gain more by betting on Manny?
Sure enough, millions of dollars must have moved in behind Manny this past 48 hours. As this is written, the SBGlobal boards reflect yet another pull from pro-Manny wagers. Manny is now only +160 while Oscar remains at -200.
The trend established by the odds seems to indicate that the amount of bets placed on Manny has increased at a rate that is faster than that of Oscar’s. It suggest that the odds will eventually level off by the time Philippine politicians get themselves to unload tons of monies—some of which may not be their own. This is what the wagers for Oscar want. This is the time for them to flex hind muscles and get ready to jump for the kill.
The odds work like a currency exchange rate. If they go in you favor, you cash in with a few millions more by just betting at the right time and on the right currency.
As a Pacman fan, Oscar’s body language worries me. His focus goes beyond the fight itself. He is teasing the exchange rate. He cannot do this unless he is sure that he is the right currency.
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