The Odds Move Closer For Manny

Excitement intensifies as “The Dream Match” between Manny Pacquiao, currently the world’s greatest boxer pound for pound, and Oscar dela Hoya, the biggest draw of the sport, draws near. On the night of December 6, 2008, the boxing world will stop to watch what is expected to be a non-stop action from start to finish atop the ring at MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.
Part of the excitement comes from the generated up-level accounts of bravado as preparations by both camps for the big fight are winding up. Team Pacquiao is confident of winning the fight. Freddie Roach, the coach, has predicted that the fight will end before the final bell. And it will end with Oscar unable to maintain an upright position long enough to survive a career-ending ambush. The rest of the Wild Card staff is not far behind in advancing more or less the same drum-pounding hype.

The Dela Hoya camp is equally upbeat, whose message to everyone since Day One has hardly varied: there is no way Oscar can lose this fight. The Golden Boy himself even went to the extent of saying that Manny will not go beyond five rounds. “I will punish him for dishonoring me,” Oscar was reported to have said. For the many who knew little of how Manny dishonored Oscar, perhaps it would suffice to say that one felt offended by the other when Manny ended up being associated with Bob Arum’s Top Rank instead of Oscar’s Golden Boy Promotions. Manny obliges Oscar by assuring the Golden Boy that The Dream Match will settle the personal issue between the two of them.

So who do you think will come out winning The Dream Match? As the boxing world waits for the suspenseful fight night to come, I can think of three perspectives from which one can hazard a guess. The first comes from what the experts say. The second comes from betting odds. And the third will depend on one’s gut feel.

Boxing experts are not one in their analysis of who is likely to win this huge fight. Majority of boxers who used to be of consequence in their time, including former pound for pound champions Sugar Ray Leonard and Floyd Mayweather Jr, think that Oscar will win. Sports analysts and boxing writers are divided—and sometimes the stories would depend on who is a fan of who. Not a few are decidedly for Oscar. Filipino writers don’t bother with the spin, they just tell us that Manny is the Pacman and the Pacman will win. It is interesting to note that most of American boxing journalists who earlier dismissed the fight as a sham are now writing about it with interest; some are even hinting at the possibility of a Pacquiao win.

Another way of analyzing the fight outcome is to look at the betting trend. We can dismiss what the experts are saying. But we may not dismiss quite easily what the wagers are saying through their bets. The reason is simple: one has nothing but a mouth; the other is putting their money where their mouth is. (Whether that money is clean or dirty would be another story.)

Over the last three weeks, the betting trend has slowly shifted in Manny’s favor, although Oscar remains the heavy favorite. At SBGlobal , the betting odds stood at +170 for Manny and -200 for Oscar. This means a 100 wager on Manny will win 170 if Manny wins the fight; on the other hand, those betting on Oscar will need a 200 wager to win 100 if Oscar comes out the winner. The betting odds previously stood at +180 for Manny and -230 for Oscar.

(In an earlier post I advanced the proposition that it would be in the interest of those who are loaded with dollars and planning to bet on Oscar to rev-up the pro-Manny hype. I believe that an effective Manny projection can create a mousetrap for those who otherwise are not committed to betting on Manny, and a surge in betting funds for him will skew the odds closer to the middle of the probability spectrum. A heavy money game player, say one with a few million bucks, can win big if the betting odds are in his favor.)

The third point for analysis is what we feel about this fight. We concede that Oscar is superior in terms of height, bulk and heft. He will not need to load on his punches to make one a haymaker because of that advantage. Compared to Manny who will need to load on his own to bring his message across, as it were, Oscar will find it easier to keep his balance and attacking position every second of 12 3-minute rounds.

On the other hand, Manny is quick and explosive. Drawing power from a string of Lloyd-certified leg, hip and shoulder muscles, this former mini-flyweight can stun a middleweight. He also has stamina. Manny therefore has what it takes to create conditions for Oscar to make a slight slip or rest a fleeting second to gasp for air. A small opening is all Manny needs to knock the Golden Boy out and send him to his blissful retirement.

Above all, Manny wins because he puts hard work into his craft in ways that are probably unmatched by any professional athlete. He stands out because he has courage; he has self-confidence and he believes in his God. When he fought Marco Antonio Barrera the first time, the betting odds suggested that there was no way Manny could win that fight. Can the Pacman beat the odds one more time on December 6?
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I am a Pacman fan and this post was made to show it. Digital copies of my 148-page book “Who Can Stop The Pacman?” are available for USD 5.75. Order by Paypal through my account at pinoyprofits@gmail.com and I will send your copy to your inbox. Registration at Paypal is free, just click here if you have not account yet. You can also place your bets for the Dream Match online through SBGlobal. Just register (click here) and click to Sportsbook then click again to Boxing.